“Briefcases Replace Backpacks And Airlines Increase Prices - The Wall Street Transcript (blog)” plus 3 more |
- Briefcases Replace Backpacks And Airlines Increase Prices - The Wall Street Transcript (blog)
- Increased Holiday Air Travel For Bing. Airport - FOX 40 News WICZ TV
- America's smartest people - msnbc.com
- Oppenheimer Analyst Sees Few Restaurant Stock Winners Until Q2 2010 - The Wall Street Transcript (blog)
| Briefcases Replace Backpacks And Airlines Increase Prices - The Wall Street Transcript (blog) Posted: 25 Nov 2009 09:48 AM PST November 25, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published Travel and Leisure--Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants Report offering a timely review of the Airlines sector. This Special Report contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. Please find an excerpt below. View Details of This Special Report Recent Wall Street Transcript Special Reports. Kevin Crissey is a Director in UBS Investment Research's transportation group, specializing in U.S. airlines. In 2008 Mr. Crissey was named number one stock picker for U.S. airlines in The Wall Street Journal "Best on the Street" report. Mr. Crissey joined UBS as an Associate Analyst in February 2003, following airfreight, railroad, trucking, logistics and shipping stocks. Prior to joining UBS, Mr. Crissey served as a Consultant to UBS and other financial services companies for five years. He also worked in the real estate group for Smith Barney for four years. Mr. Crissey holds an MBA in finance from New York University, and a B.S. in finance and international business from Pennsylvania State University. TWST: Let's start with the big picture and your outlook for travel-related companies - you cover both airlines and some of the online travel sites. What is your outlook? Is the worst behind us? Mr. Crissey: I sure hope so, and the data seems to suggest that that's the case. It's clearly still a discounters' market, which is playing well for the online travel guys, where basically you have been able to lower your prices and stimulate leisure traffic. Not so much on the business side, which is typical of the demand elasticities, the differences between those two types of passengers. The planes are pretty full right now, and so what we expect going forward is that you are going to see it be more about pricing than about volume. And we think that travel demand is getting better. I'm not sure how fast it's going to get better, that's a function of the economy. But we're hopeful that it gets better, and we think it'll get meaningfully better starting in January from the corporate side, as new travel budgets are set with hopefully a brighter outlook. When that happens, you may be replacing a backpacker with a briefcase guy or gal. And so that would be good for the pricing of the airlines, and I think a similar read-through for what it would mean for hotels. The online travel agencies probably have seen or are seeing the peak of their volume growth. And now the question becomes: Are they better off in a trade where they get a higher price point and a little bit less volume? Because I think the hotels and airlines are about as desperate as they're going to be in terms of the interest in selling through online travel agencies right now. So we're optimistic on the outlook for things improving; the question is how fast is that improvement. TWST: You said the online sites are seeing the peak of volume growth. Has business held up well for them due to consumer price sensitivity? Has that resulted in increased traffic for the sites? Mr. Crissey: Yes, there are a couple of reasons going on. The hotels and the airlines are basically giving them as much inventory as they can sell, and the consumer is certainly looking for a bargain; they'll travel but only at discounted prices. So that lends itself well to the online travel market. And then additionally, they cut booking fees both for hotels but more meaningfully for airline tickets, and that's giving less reason for a customer to switch from the Expedia (EXPE), Priceline (PCLN), Orbitz (OWW), Travelocity sites to the supplier-direct channels. It used to be you'd shop on one and go book on the other because why pay the fee? There's no such incentive or at least there is a reduced incentive to do that now, and that seems to be helping their volumes as well. It's a little bit hard to distinguish between the effects, but clearly the volume - I mean, Expedia's ticket volume is 27%; clearly that is going to be well above what's happening for the overall market for air tickets. So they're definitely taking share. I think a decent chunk of the share is coming from other brick-and-mortar-type travel agencies, and probably some is from supplier-direct channels as well. The remainder of this 137 page Travel and Leisure--Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants Report can be immediately viewed by purchasing online. The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. The remainder of this interview and the 24 other interviews in this Travel and Leisure Report are available for purchase via The Wall Street Transcript Online. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations. For Information on subscribing to The Wall Street Transcript, please call 800/246-7673
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| Increased Holiday Air Travel For Bing. Airport - FOX 40 News WICZ TV Posted: 23 Nov 2009 03:37 PM PST
It's one of the biggest travel weeks of the year, and this year's rough economy isn't expected to change things. The Greater Binghamton Airport says it expects to see a nearly three percent increase in Thanksgiving traffic over last year. The airport says the last week of November is traditionally a busier time of year than even Christmas. "At Christmastime, the travel is spread out over a few weeks. When you're talking about travel or leisure travel during the Thanksgiving holiday, it's all compacted into one week," said Carl Beardsley, Commissioner of Aviation. The Binghamton Airport says ticket sales in general started picking up for the airport after a weak holiday season last year, with traffic steadily growing throughout 2009.
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| America's smartest people - msnbc.com Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:32 AM PST What U.S. city has the most intelligent citizens? According to Travel + Leisure's 2009 America's Favorite Cities Survey, the answer is simple: Minneapolis-St. Paul. Now in its fifth year, the survey—which was open to the online voting public this past summer—covers 30 U.S. cities and was expanded this year to include even more urban areas, such as Cleveland, Providence, and St. Louis. Its "People" category consistently ranks as the most talked about, with voters weighing in on such topics as what U.S. city has the most attractive people (Miami) or the least (Philadelphia). Not surprisingly, the question of which city is home to the country's smartest people has also sparked discussion. Some may credit the weather—for keeping people indoors with their noses in books—for the high IQs of Twin Cities residents, but the heady city is full of clues: top-ranked Macalester and seven other colleges; the Utne Reader and beloved independent Common Good Books; Minnesota Public Radio and the smart radio stylings of Garrison Keillor's Prairie Home Companion; the revered Guthrie Theater; and a local culture that prides itself on being in the know—and knowing it all. "The enormity of artistic and cultural opportunity paired with outdoor activity make the Minnie-apple a standout city," says Annie W. Mathisen, a 35-year-old attorney who was born in Minneapolis-St. Paul and then returned as an adult because of the area's high quality of life. "We can boast having inventive minds, from Lucent to Prince. I think Minneapolis fosters an environment where intelligence is valued and constantly fed—no matter what your mind is hungry for," she says. But there are other intellectual hotbeds, too. The freethinking bastion of San Francisco—home to countless high-tech companies and Internet entrepreneurs—ranks among the survey's top 10 smartest cities. Washingtonians are no dummies, either. With a diverse population and an army of cunning politicians, our nation's capital gets high marks for smarts. Other cities, however, are the class clowns to the straight A students above. Orlando, for example, may be home to the most magical place on earth, but survey-takers voted their residents' intelligence a bit less mesmerizing. Dallas, too, ended up toward the bottom of the intelligence list. Sure, smart people live all over the United States, but maybe some cities really do have more collective brainpower than others. This content has passed through fivefilters.org. |
| Posted: 25 Nov 2009 05:13 AM PST November 25, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published Travel and Leisure--Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants Report offering a timely review of the Restaurants sector. This Special Report contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. Please find an excerpt below. View Details of This Special Report Recent Wall Street Transcript Special Reports. Matthew J. DiFrisco is an Executive Director and Senior Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. who covers the restaurant sector. He came to Oppenheimer in 2008 from Thomas Weisel Partners, where he followed the space with a strong emphasis on mid-cap/small-cap emerging growth companies. Mr. DiFrisco began his equity research career in 1997 at Lehman Bothers and has worked at several houses, including Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey and Harris Nesbitt - BMO Group, as he developed and prospered through the Wall Street merger wars of the last 10 years. TWST: How do you currently characterize the industry and where it sits on that curve? When will companies begin to break out? Mr. DiFrisco: I think it's really tied to disposable personal income. We've heard a lot of chatter about how unemployment is a lagging indicator and how it doesn't mean that much - the economy should turn before, and the 90% that are employed are going to be better spenders. We're a little skeptical of that in this current environment. I think this is a - and I guess I've overused the term - "new normal." This might not be a typical recovery in that you don't have the credit igniting that 90% that's still employed. So the spending power from that 90% doesn't look as robust as it might have in other recoveries. So we're very much focused on the unemployment level, and I think until you see unemployment improve, you're probably not going to see the restaurants improve meaningfully on a sustainable comp basis. So the top line same-store sales that drive returns are dependent on disposable income turning and improving through wages and salaries, primarily to make people better spenders and improve consumer confidence. We believe that could happen as early as 2Q 2010, and that's where you might start seeing in aggregate positive comps across a broad group of brands. We're not just thinking that the fourth quarter, having easier comp compares, puts us on a clear path to that. There might be the risk of a head fake in the first quarter, so we're more comfortable at the second quarter as far as a sustainable basis. TWST: How are the various segments of the industry doing in comparison to each other? Mr. DiFrisco: It's interesting that people always would think that the higher-income consumer would be able to weather the storm better. I think that's certainly not the case as far as how brands are aligned. The bubble, when it burst, certainly hurt the high-end guys. So if you look at the steak guys, they're anywhere from 18% to 28% down as far as comparable sales, which are tremendous numbers - just a complete exodus from some of those concepts. So you're seeing meal business hit hardest at the upper end; then you go down into the upper-casual diners and some of the faster growers, too, over the last couple of years and decade. P.F. Chang's (PFCB), for instance, is certainly a lagger - lagging the bar and grill space, and lagging the Olive Gardens (DRI) of the world, and certainly the Texas Roadhouses (TXRH). There are very few brands with positive comps, and those that are seem to be differentiated and category leaders. Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has hung in there relatively well, as it's a differentiated brand. The consumer is finding BWLD to be still a compelling value for them at that price point and for that occasion. Then you have the fast-food guys as well; they've hung in there to date, and now they have some tougher comparisons to go up against - positive comparable sales for a lot of them still. And that is a segment that is starting to get hit a little bit by the creep in unemployment; and the QSR segment remains a share game still. Consumers really can't find anyplace to trade down away from the value-oriented fast-food guys unless they go home and make their own dinner. I think McDonald's (MCD) remains the best value-positioned brand. So that's certainly been the safe haven, but we see little upside from current levels. The remainder of this 37 page Travel and Leisure--Airlines, Hotels, Resorts, Cruise Lines, and Restaurants Report can be immediately viewed by purchasing online. The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. The remainder of this interview and the 24 other interviews in this Travel and Leisure Report are available for purchase via The Wall Street Transcript Online. The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations. For Information on subscribing to The Wall Street Transcript, please call 800/246-7673
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